H@RD TRUTHS BY GHK LALL – Venezuela standing down, but not going away

Nov 26, 2023 Features / Columnists, News, The GHK Lall Column

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Kaieteur News – Venezuela is not going to invade Guyana.  Somebody over there took a reading of the global temperature, and came to their senses. Venezuela is not going to abide with any court ruling relative to this border controversy with Guyana.  So, now with a gas-powered referendum galloping at full stretch towards Sunday, December 3^rd, Venezuelan leaders, none as much as Nicholas Maduro, have to find a face-saving alleyway out of the quagmire they have wrapped themselves into, made into their national sacred rite.  A soft landing is called for, but it is something that is made infinitely more difficult when done going backwards.  From my perspective, all of these elements-finding a face-saving way, soft landing spot, and while walking backwards are sure to rip neighbours raw, and deeply rankle them.  Let this be said, Venezuela will retreat and lick its wounded pride, its temporarily thwarted ambitions, but it is not giving up on its claims.  Never will.

I look at this cold-bloodedly.  President Maduro is pushing for conversation.  Let us engage in a hypothetical.  There is the unbelievable: a generous compromise on a government-to-government level to make this controversy evaporate once and for all time.  To extend the thought, all Guyana agrees, with the same happening in Venezuela’s Assembly.  It may be unbelievable, but so was/is that development making the rounds about a ‘channel to the sea’, one now filled up with stones and other political waste matters.  But what is to stop a covetous and ambition Venezuelan in its armed forces, or a rabblerousing jingoistic politician in its circle, crying out about bowing to imperialists, pawning national sovereignty for political objectives, and betraying a part of the sacred national birthright for nothing.  For those in the local community, who think that this is farfetched, I put this bowl of toxic soup on the table: If after over a hundred years, the Venezuelan claim is exhumed, given neon-like brightness, and brandished in Guyana’s face, what is to hold Venezuela’s hand to revisit and repeat its 2023 escalation sometime or the other in the next 100 years? There is sure to be some fiery zealot, some renegade general, some scheming politician, in Venezuela’s charmed circle who would harbor such an idea.  When that time comes, the big political push (and accompanying bellicose rhetoric) that fueled the December 3, 2023, referendum would be muted, almost nonexistent.  People learn.  They adjust.  They bear their chafe, and live to fight another day.  Guyanese beware of neighbors who fight on the sly.

Here is a second thought that originates from another quarter, but ends up at the exact same place.  The ICJ dismisses Venezuela’s claim, which looks highly probable at this time.  Venezuela has not blushed, not backed away: it will not yield before any such adjudication.  It is Venezuela or nothing.  Though it is never healthy or wise to say never, I make the call, and assert that it will always be never with Venezuela where 53,000 square miles of Guyana’s territory are involved.  In some respects, Guyana is in the worst of situations: it is dying by a thousand cuts (a powerful neighbor running a hybrid (undeclared or proxy) war racket away from the public glare); or this country finds itself living in a near vegetative state.  It is not quite frozen or paralyzed, but it is constrained from expressing fullest strength.  It may be more appreciated if presented in this way: a sword hangs perpetually over Guyana’s head.  This rich land, that richer oil, all Guyana’s air of the richest quality drive men (and women) to abandon moderation and embrace madness.  Lesser prizes have driven men to greater degrees of insanity.

In brief, the border controversy portrait displays these blotches.  No acceptance of 19^th century arbitral boundary lines.  No consideration of any 21^st century court decision.  No intention by Guyana of having any dialogue with Venezuela.  It seems to my limited mind that Guyana is in the same place today as pre-1899; and that Guyana will likely live under the same heavy shadow come 2099.  Venezuela’s Maduro does have this insistent interest to chat.  One Guyanese leader did entertain ideas about a stream to the sea.  Indeed, webs can be weaved by men who believe themselves blessed with a special kind of magic.  It usually takes plenty to untangle them.  Despite all the public posturing in Georgetown and Caracas, nothing may be really fully off the table.  What is put on it and left on it, well, that is a whole new ballgame.  Guyanese had better learn that public statements and private visions can be two radically clashing things.  Here is a little reminder.  In the good old days before Exxon planted its conquering flag in Guyana, rice was swapped for oil with Venezuela, under a deal that had the expansive name of Petrocaribe.  It is still so sweet that some in the region now hedge their support for Guyana behind nuanced language.  Guyana’s President even lost a sister.

Any reasonable review of this matter between Guyana and Venezuela should come to these conclusions.  Guyana has strengths.  So does Venezuela.  Venezuela has not let go of anything at any time since 1899.  Guyana has.  Guyana must marshal all its strengths, get its act together.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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• global, Guyana, Nicholas Maduro, referendum, Venezuela

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