The third parties will not survive this year’s elections

Jan 30, 2025 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Peeping Tom…

Kaieteur News- The fate of third parties in this year’s general and regional elections is as predictable as the tide. They will be swept away, their ambitions drowned in the deep and unforgiving waters of political polarization.

For all the chatter about emerging forces and fresh alternatives, the grim reality remains that the electorate is too polarized, the stakes too high, and the resources too unevenly distributed for any new political formation to gain meaningful traction. Save, perhaps, for the Alliance For Change (AFC), which may scrape by with a seat—an achievement that would owe more to residual support than any fresh groundswell of enthusiasm.

The first and perhaps most decisive factor spelling doom for third parties is the memory of 2020. It is a memory that still burns hot among the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) base. It is a scar that has not faded. The attempt, by the APNU+AFC coalition to benefit from what was widely seen as a rigged election in 2020, will not be easily forgotten, nor forgiven. The PPP/C’s supporters are galvanized, and their mission is clear: ensure that APNU never again becomes a political threat. This means there will be no leakage of votes, no indulgence in the luxury of third-party flirtations. Every vote must serve the cause of securing the PPP/C’s dominance, because to do otherwise would be to risk a return to the uncertainty and instability of 2020 and the perceived crises of the previous five years. Third parties will not be given a second look by this voting bloc.

On the other side, the APNU’s supporters will dig in. The coalition’s base remains sizable enough to make third-party incursions difficult. Those who remain loyal to APNU are unlikely to abandon it now. Even with its internal struggles, the APNU represents the only viable opposition, and in a high-stakes election, pragmatism trumps idealism. Third parties, no matter how well-intentioned or articulate, will find themselves speaking into the void.

Then there is the PPP/C’s deliberate strategy to frame this election as a referendum on the rule of the APNU+AFC. This is no accident. The PPP/C understands that as long as the election remains a stark binary choice—us or them—third parties have no oxygen. By keeping the focus on the failures of the PNC/R’s rule, by reminding voters of mismanagement, corruption, and economic stagnation, the PPP/C ensures that any wavering voter is left with a clear message: you are either with us, or you are with them. It is a strategy designed to squeeze out not just the APNU and the AFC, but any potential challenger from outside the traditional two-party framework.

New formations will be treated with suspicion, their leaders scrutinized, their viability questioned at every turn. Already, there have been ominous threats about how the PPP/C will “deal” with these emerging figures. The message is clear: there is no room at the table for interlopers. Beyond the political manoeuvring, there is the cold, hard reality of campaign finance. Elections are expensive, and third parties do not have the war chest required to compete.

The bourgeois class—the financial kingmakers of Guyanese politics—will act as they always do, hedging their bets by distributing funds among the major contenders. The AFC will receive some, APNU will get more, and the lion’s share will go to the PPP/C. But the new third forces? They will be left to fend for themselves, scrambling for scraps, unable to mount a serious challenge. Without money, there can be no advertisements, no mobilization, no visibility. Without visibility, there can be no votes. It is a vicious cycle, and it is one from which no third party will escape.

If the financial kingmakers decide to do away with their quest for political insurance by starving the APNU of campaign donations, the PPP/C will romp home easily. But the bourgeois class is one that likes to give to all sides to ensure that no matter who wins the elections; this class never loses.

And so, as election day approaches, the fate of third parties is sealed.  They will contest, they will campaign, they will make their case to the public. But they will not win. They will not gain ground. They will not upset the balance of power. They will be, at best, footnotes in the larger story of the election, at worst, forgotten entirely.  They will be decimated and humiliated.  The PPP/C will secure its victory. The APNU will hold on, diminished but still relevant. And the third parties? They will be left to wonder what might have been, had the timing been different, had the terrain been less hostile. But the timing is not different, and the terrain is as unforgiving as ever.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of this newspaper.)

(The third parties will not survive this year’s elections)

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• Alliance For Change, APNU, Peeping Tom, People’s Progressive Party Civic, political polarization

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