Guyana to help supply one-third of global oil output by 2030: IEA

Jun 18, 2025 News

…warns global conflicts put market at risk as supply set to outpace demand

Kaieteur News – The International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning that global oil supply growth is set to significantly outpace demand in the coming years, as geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, pose serious risks to energy security.

In its latest medium-term report, Oil 2025, released on Tuesday, the agency noted, “As Israel-Iran conflict focuses attention on immediate energy security risks, new IEA medium-term outlook sees global oil supply increase set to far outpace demand growth in coming years. With intensifying geopolitical strains and heightened uncertainty about global economic prospects, oil markets are undergoing structural changes as the key drivers of supply and demand growth of the past 15 years start to fade.”

The IEA projects that between 2024 and 2030, global oil demand will rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade. However, production capacity is expected to grow by more than 5 mb/d to 114.7 mb/d, with strong contributions from natural gas liquids and other non-crude sources.

The United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are expected to dominate this non-OPEC+ supply increase. The IEA stated that these five countries will collectively provide nearly one-third of the world’s oil supply by 2030, with the Americas accounting for nearly all the 3.1 mb/d growth projected for non-OPEC+ during this period.

“When we look at oil market trends over the past decade, we see a remarkable double act – thanks to the shale revolution, the United States has accounted for 90% of oil supply growth worldwide, while 60% of the rise in global demand has come from China. But these dynamics are shifting,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Birol added, “Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead – but recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security. When it comes to energy security, there is no room for complacency. The IEA remains deeply committed to working with energy producers and consumers to safeguard energy security.”

According to the report, China, which has driven the growth in global oil demand for well over a decade, is set to see its consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in electric vehicle sales and the continued deployment of high-speed rail and trucks running on natural gas. At the same time, US oil supply is now expected to grow at a slower pace as companies scale back spending and focus on capital discipline, although the United States remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth in the coming years.

Moreover, it was stated that Guyana continues to play an increasingly prominent role in global supply expansion. Currently, oil is being produced from the prolific Stabroek Block, which is estimated to hold 11.6 billion barrels of oil.

The operator of that block is ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL), which holds 45% interest alongside its partners Hess with 30% and CNOOC with 25%. Currently, three Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels, the Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, and Prosperity, are in production, with another FPSO expected to come onstream later this year. The three active FPSOs collectively produce around 650,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd). To date, Exxon has received regulatory approval for six projects and has already submitted applications for a seventh and eighth project, namely Hammerhead and Longtail.

Guyana, IEA, oil, Oil output, OPEC

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