The meeting

Dec 14, 2023 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – One should not expect too much from the talks which are likely to take place today in St. Vincent and the Grenadines between President Maduro of Venezuela and Irfaan Ali of Guyana. Both sides have adopted entrenched positions that could lead to the meeting being at best unproductive or worse being cancelled.

Guyana has rightly opted not to discuss the border controversy. Its position is that the matter is properly before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and as such there is nothing to discuss.

Venezuela, on the other hand, is hoping to use the meeting to force discussions about the border. The two positions adopted by each other are akin to parallel lines. They will not converge.

It will therefore be left to the skills of the facilitators of the dialogue, the representatives of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to find a middle ground for talks between the two sides. If this fails, then the talks will have to be cancelled.

Venezuela has not adopted an implacable position. Nor has Guyana. Venezuela can be nudged by the Caribbean Community to freeze the implementation of the recent decrees that it issued, including the one which creates a 24th state. But this may be an unrealistic proposal at this time.

The area in which the most progress is likely to be made  in the de-escalation of tensions. There is a strong possibility that both sides can be encouraged to tone down the rhetoric since this can inflame tensions and lead to a breach of the peace.

The Prime Minister of St. Vincent has called for mature, respectful and wise discourse. But what this means in a practical sense, is not clear.

Yet, the Prime Minister of St. Vencent has received plaudits for seeking to defuse tensions between the two South American neighbors. A former President of the Caribbean Court of Justice has welcomed the initiative of CELAC and CARICOM, saying that it sets a wonderful example for the rest of the world.

These platitudes however will become meaningless if there is no progress in defusing tensions between Guyana and Venezuela. A possible menu of measures would be important in helping to ensure that the meeting results in progress. But as of going to press, there has been no indication as to what the agenda of the talks will be like.

It may be that this will be an initial face-to-face meeting with no fixed agenda. This will at least allow for optics that would show that both sides want a peaceful resolution. But as far as Guyana is concerned, a peaceful resolution lies in the ICJ. And as far as Venezuela is concerned, a peaceful resolution likes in a return to what it deems dialogue under the Geneva Agreement.

The two positions are irreconcilable. Once the Secretary General of the United Nations had chosen a juridical path for the settlement of the controversy, the issue of good offices and the other means of settlement became moot.

The talks are attracting heightened interest. The Office of the Secretary General of the United Nations is sending observers. The Brazilian President is also dispatching a representative. Given this level of interest, it is not likely that the talks are going to be cancelled at the last minute because of the conflicting positions of each side concerning what is to be discussed.

This is all the more reason why discussions on de-escalation of tensions are likely to dominate the talks. Both leaders are likely to be asked to tone down the rhetoric but whether Guyana’s President can commit to constraining one of the senior members of his government who has made it a habit in recent times of attacking Maduro and his Foreign Minister, is left to be seen.

All eyes are likely to be on Ali who is inexperienced in dealing with situations of this nature and urgency. He has to prove that he has the diplomatic finesses to engage productively in such talks.

But he is not the only one under pressure. President Maduro is likely to face much internal pressure in Venezuela to return with something tangible in relation to the territorial dispute. He will be expected, by his people, to return home with some concession, much more so if he is going to make any concession to freeze the recent decrees concerning the 24th state of Venezuela.

Given all these challenges, the meeting may end up being about processes to deescalate tensions. This nevertheless would be a positive outcome for both sides. If they can least appoint plenipotentiaries to discuss possible ways of reducing tensions between the two countries, both sides are likely to feel pleased by the outcome.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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