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Mar 28, 2022 News
By Rehanna Ramsay
Kaieteur News – While Vice President (VP), Bharrat Jagdeo continues to stand by his statement that the economy of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) is falling apart, economist and transparency advocate, Ramon Gaskin is warning that the VP should be careful of what he says about the economic difficulties faced by the fellow oil producing Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nation, since Guyana’s oil situation may result in a far worse outcome.
Gaskin comments come days after Jagdeo defended his statement on T&T, promising that Guyana will not fall into the same boat given the efforts to maintain an economy which is not dependent only on its oil and gas. While Jagdeo’s words may seem comforting, when taken at face value, Gaskin invites Guyanese to take a closer look at Guyana’s economic situation. He noted that even with diversification of the economy, Guyanese have not benefited adequately from the resources. Additionally, he said an examination of Guyana’s oil deal and systems put in place to adequately manage the sector, paints a grim picture of the nation’s future with oil and gas.
“When we look at our overall position I think he should be very careful of his position because even with the current [diversification] and other sectors contributing to the economy, many Guyanese remain poor. They have not been benefiting as they should from the resources. Guyana has been known for favouring foreign investors. If you look at every other major sector, gold, bauxite, timber … It is the Chinese, RUSAL [Russians], Canadians and the other people who benefit most. Guyanese have barely been feeling the trickle down effects. So I really don’t know what Mr. Jagdeo is promising the people when he says that Guyana will be better off,” Gaskin asserted.
The local transparency advocate is of the view that the VP’s word should be taken with a grain of salt. He said, “We all know that Guyana will not benefit much given the deal it signed with Exxon and the other oil companies HESS and CNOON. There is too much risk involved with the oil exploration already in case of an oil spill because there is no adequate insurance coverage. That alone could lead to serious financial problems and bankrupt the country now and in the future.”
Taking all of this into consideration, Gaskin said in fact, it is possible Guyana can end up worse than T&T in a few short years. “I don’t know how we are going to be so well off as an oil producer.
The government has not presented a plan to the people of how they will spend the little they are getting in the next three to five years. So, there is no evidence to support Mr. Jagdeo’s position,” he said.
In the meantime, Gaskin described Jagdeo’s decision to maintain his position on T&T economy as “quite unfortunate.” “It is very undiplomatic and unfortunate, the choice of words used by Mr. Jagdeo to speak about a fellow CARICOM nation. If you look at the situation that Trinidad is facing, the entire world is facing it,” he added.
Jagdeo‘s comment on T&T was made during a recent two-day out-reach he conducted on the Essequibo Coast, Region Two. He was at the time speaking about the need to diversify Guyana’s economy to ensure that it does not become poor like other countries that were dependent on revenues from its oil and gas sector. He said, “Invest some of the oil and gas resources into building the infrastructure, so the non-oil and gas sector in the future can generate the jobs because if you don’t do that, when the oil money goes we will be poor more than many countries in the world…look at what is happening in Trinidad now.”
He continued, “Trinidad is falling apart and that is putting it mildly, falling apart. No jobs to sustain periods of negative growth, can’t see the light of day, can’t see the light of day for the near future.” Though his statements were reportedly not well received by his Trinidadian counterpart, the VP has been maintaining that Trinidad was heavily reliant on its oil sector, which led to its economy crashing after global oil prices fell.
The VP related that he has been keeping track of Trinidad and Tobago’s economic performance for a while now. He said, “I recalled reading one of their earlier budgets, not the 2022 budget where in one year they lost 80 percent of their revenue because of the change in the oil and gas prices and the fall in production.”
While the government’s aim for Guyana to diversify its economy in order to avoid the “Dutch Disease”, or in other words for the country not to become poor when the oil resources are finished, experts in the sector have advised that Guyana could still end up in huge debt and become poor if they do not renegotiate good deals with foreign oil companies.
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