What would have happened had the rigging succeeded?

Feb 22, 2022 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Kaieteur News – We are fast approaching the second anniversary of the most dramatic general and regional elections since the turn of the 21st century. And the question has been posed, not necessarily rhetorically, as to what would have happened had the incumbent APNU+AFC refused to leave the seat of office or had been foisted on the Guyanese people through a declaration by GECOM which was not reflective of the will of the people.
The most immediate consequence of either would have been political sanctions. In fact, the US State Department had clamped travel restrictions on individual members of the government. The identities of these persons are not known.
The travel sanctions shook the APNU+AFC leadership hard. At the time the US made its announcement, a number of members of the top brass of the APNU+AFC were celebrating David Granger’s birthday at State House and pictures on social media revealed a stunned expression on many of their faces when word seeped through that the US had ordered sanctions on individuals in the Guyana government and on others complicit in the attempt to subvert the elections.
Other foreign countries, including Canada and the United Kingdom threatened to do the same. And the then Chairman of Caricom had made it clear that there was no way that Caricom would condone rigged elections.
These sanctions would have meant that those affected would not be able to travel to those countries. And the country would have faced a novel situation in possibly being asked not to sit in on meetings of the organs of the Caribbean Community.
There were forces however who were determined to face down these sanctions, should they have been extended. Their thinking was probably that the West had an interest in getting their hands on Guyana’s oil and therefore with diplomatic agitation, an illegal APNU+AFC government could have eventually survived these travel sanctions and rolled them back.
It was no doubt this belief which led to the mutiny within the PNC/R which targeted David Granger. There was displeasure that he would accept the GECOM declaration and when he did, the rebellion turned against him.
But had the travel sanctions and suspension from the organs of Caricom not worked, the personal and political sanctions would have been extended. Guyana would have been suspended from the Commonwealth, the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) to name a few.
And when that was finished and there was no removal of the illegal regime, there would have been movement against the assets of persons within the government. They would not have been able to do any business overseas; their credit cards would have been frozen, any foreign assets they had would have been similarly treated and their families would have been subject to sanctions.
If the illegal government still would not budge, then economic sanctions would have been applied. And this would have hurt the population. Not a cent of the oil money would have been able to be remitted. It should be recalled that the oil proceeds are deposited in a bank account overseas. Also all international loans would have been frozen. This would have led to economic and social implosion.
Those who therefore were opposed to the actions of Granger did not seriously contemplate the range of actions which could have been taken against an illegal government. Western intelligence agencies would have gone into their files and dug up dirt involving government actors. The information would have been made public.
The mutineers within the PNC/R were therefore misguided. There was no way that the international community would have allowed them to rig an election and get away with it. Those days are gone. Guyana’s political leadership cannot survive personal and political sanctions, much less economic sanctions.
The supporters of the APNU+AFC, with few exceptions, knew that their party had lost the elections. Some of them put up a front to keep the Coalitions narrative of gross irregularities going. But the overwhelming majority knew that no such irregularities could have been perpetuated when the Coalition virtually had representatives in every polling station.
The supporters of the APNU+AFC had this knowledge and they also recognised that the Coalition had never produced their Statements of Polls to counter the PPP/C’s publications of theirs. As such the APNU+AFC could not muster public support for their discredited narrative. Nobody was going to do what was done in 1997.
And there was also no way that the PPP/C was going to allow the APNU+AFC to get away so easily with rigging an election. In fact, during the attempt to tamper with the declarations, the PPP/C’s support base took to the streets in their communities and regions, sending an effective message also that rigging would not be entertained.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)