Latest update March 28th, 2024 12:59 AM
Sep 26, 2020 News
Ana Correia is a Sustainable Development Master student who is interested in changing the way Guyanese think about and engage with the future. Her work on transformational change coupled with deep uncertainty about Guyana’s future led her to research the ways that societal change could be initiated.
This project is part of her thesis which hopes to start a discussion about what Guyanese really want their future to look like, and what trade-offs they’re willing to accept. After interviewing people from all over the country, the following scenarios were developed. She wants everyone to read them and consider which parts of each they want (or don’t want) for their future so that we may start to build a vision for Guyana that we can all agree on and work towards together. She can be contacted at [email protected] or 222-2503. Illustrations by Mary Fung-A-Fat.
Scenario One – Information Age
After the election scandal of 2020, the PPP emerges victorious and immediately gets to work orienting Guyana towards a future in oil. Recognizing the employment opportunities for young skilled Guyanese within the budding oil and gas sector, as well as the need to bring Guyana up to international standards of business, they decide to invest revenues in education and information technology – a business reform, if you will. Competence and efficiency are the new names of the game. They give lip service on ethnic reconciliation to placate the population’s growing cries for a solution to the tension, but nothing is concretely done. Instead, the public’s attention is redirected to high-profile economic projects like the Amaila Falls hydropower plant (which never materializes), and the Berbice deep-water harbour (which would probably be better suited in Essequibo). Race relations continue to deteriorate.
In 2022, the formal process for education reform begins. The government supplies every school with new computers so that every single Guyanese child may have the opportunity take courses and develop skills in I.T. UG is now free. Educators across the country are tasked with creating a relevant and forward-facing curriculum based on current opportunities within the country and foresight of what Guyana is going to need in the future. UG awards scholarships to its best and brightest educators to go abroad and specialize in needed fields so that they can bring that knowledge back home when they are finished.
In 2025, the PPP win again, but this time the third parties win enough seats to strip them of the majority they previously held in parliament. It’s a big step for accountability. To facilitate more efficient business both locally and with foreign enterprises, information systems across the country start being digitized. Data, statistics, public records and research start to become more widely available and improved access and information sharing catalyses the fight for transparency in government. Watchdog organizations have started popping up, holding the PPP mostly accountable. By 2030, all major credit cards are accepted just about everywhere, and reliable online banking is the norm. All utility bills and minor fines can be paid online. Speeding, running a red light, crossing a double-yellow, and having expired documents are now all ticket offenses that do not require court appearances. The digitization of police records vastly improves communication between stations and the courts, which greatly boosts the police’s ability to follow up on defaulters. We’re actually starting to look more like a civilized country than a cowboy town these days.
The May/June rains roll around as they always do but this time, they bring trouble. The Great Flood destroys the coast. The East Coast highway is impassable, and the embankment road is under two feet of water. Because Guyana now has a good working relationship with the international community, disaster aid is dispatched quickly but because of the flooded roads, the government is unable to get supplies to the worst affected communities for well over 3 weeks. It takes 2 months for the water to recede. Everywhere is in shambles, but the oil keeps flowing. Perhaps it’s a good thing, because Lord knows we need the money right now. The rest of that year is spent recovering anything salvageable and deliberating the relocation of the capital to higher ground. The decision is made to start establishing Linden as the new epicentre of business. To facilitate more efficient travel to the shore bases which are still situated on the coast, a high-speed train is commissioned to connect Linden and Georgetown. There will also be stations at Timehri, Houston, Stabroek and Ogle. The entire journey from Linden to Ogle will take just 40 minutes, stops included. Despite the disaster, growing returns from the oil and gas industry encourage increasing investment by both foreign and local stakeholders. Continued achievement by the country’s youth robotics team garners international attention which results in a spike in local interest and public funding. Seeing the potential benefits for their own business, ExxonMobil makes STEM Guyana one of its main Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) projects.
By 2045, the final rollout of education reform is complete. The children learn all their core subjects but also about oil and the resource curse, about climate change and sustainable development, and about equity and justice. The students born out of the reform are curious and they are passionate, and coupled with access to information and technological proficiency, turn Guyana into a research hub for the Amazon and Caribbean regions. Guyana is recognized as a prime case study for biodiversity, ethnic politics, a developing oil nation during the rise of renewables, and also as a climate vulnerable country. Things are really looking up these days… until the oil market crashes in 2050.
Scenario Two – Bread Basket
After the incessant deliberation of the 2020 elections fiasco, the victorious PPP decides to invest oil revenues into diversifying the economy via agriculture. The first few years are spent subsidizing niche start-ups and investing in sustainable agriculture ventures, as well as pre-emptively establishing trade routes to facilitate supply to international markets. Farmers are encouraged to start the process of getting their farms certified by NAREI so that their produce may be eligible for export once the trade routes are opened. The certification is free, and it benefits the farmer to start early so that they can have access to the market before it becomes saturated. Rice is doing well, and sugar is finally breaking even but the real money starts to come from non-traditional crops like kale and mushrooms which used to be imported from the US and sold for a premium, but which Guyana now supplies to the entire Caribbean. Tropical fruits like pineapples, mangoes and avocadoes are being exported to Europe and North America, along with high-value foods like cashew nuts and coffee. With the global demand for organic food ever increasing, and with our farmers already complying with international standards, Guyana vaults right into the organics market. It feels nice to finally realize that dream of being the breadbasket, eh?
2021 sees the Single Use Plastics (SUP) Ban finally being implemented which forces Guyanese to start finding biodegradable alternatives to plastic. Due to poor planning and absence of an education and awareness campaign, there are no sustainable alternatives on the local market when the ban first comes into effect. Small businesses struggle and there is a period of intense growing pains as people try to adapt. At first, no one can remember to bring their reusable bags; but with plastic bags now being taxed and sold for $100 each, people learn quickly. Stores and vendors are allowed to use the bags that they already have in stock, however, once those are finished, no more imports of plastic bags or utensils are allowed into the country. The government puts out a bid for private companies to start producing eco-friendly options and offers to subsidize energy costs for the first 5 years. This creates the perfect window of opportunity for entrepreneurs to step up as the ban essentially guarantees nationwide buy-in on alternatives. Bags and utensils made from cassava starch, and plates and food boxes made from lily pads start becoming available. The demand for cassava goes way up, producing good employment opportunities for hinterland and rural communities.
2030 arrives. Oil and agriculture are both booming. It is the dawn of a new decade and brings with it the hopes of continued prosperity and optimism that Guyana is finally taking off. For real this time. That Ole Years is one to remember. Things are good. Literacy in the country remains low but employment is up and Guyanese are reporting higher levels of satisfaction in their lives. Georgetown is constantly abuzz. Then one night, on a new moon, the spring tide comes. And it doesn’t stop. The Great Flood hits the economy hard. Georgetown’s drainage and sea defences have been largely ignored with everything else going on so the flood water sits and it stagnates. All the farms on the coast are destroyed by the salt water but those along the highway are spared. Luckily, revenues from a decade of oil and flourishing agriculture are enough to see the country through the disaster, however the government’s total lack of preparation for the imminent catastrophe cost them the 2030 elections. By 2031 we are able to regain our balance, though the lesson has been learnt and investment on the coast starts drying up. Some farmers are able to turn their inundated plots into shrimp farms, but most new farms and businesses are opening further inland, particularly along the new Ogle/Timehri highway.
Rising temperatures and sea levels start causing changes to ocean currents, and more and more plastic waste starts washing up on Caribbean beaches. This is a big problem for tourism. The islands, recognizing their own role as massive per capita plastic consumers, decide to implement their own SUP bans. It’s easier now with Guyana producing sustainable plastic-alternatives right next door. Making good use of those new trade routes, Guyana is happy to supply. By 2040, we’re not just supplying the bread, we’re selling them the baskets too.
It’s 2050, and we’re doing well… until the oil market takes a drastic dive. It puts the brakes on some high-profile infrastructure projects that were being considered, but the economy is more or less sustained by its other streams of income. And we’ve got a lot of our dollars saved for hard times in the sovereign wealth fund. Whew Ma, looks like we made it.
THIS IDIOT TELLING GUYANA WE HAVE NO SAY IN THE 50% PROFIT SHARING AGREEMENT WE HAVE WITH EXXON.
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