Guyanese Americans urged to vote today

Nov 06, 2012 Letters

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Dear Editor,
I urge Guyanese Americans to vote today in the US general elections. This is a very important election. The opinion polls are showing a very tight Presidential election in which either Obama or Romney can win, although Obama has the advantage. Still, the polls say it is too tight to call.
Obama has seen over 4% of his support evaporated from 2008 down to 48% from over 52%. Romney, who was struggling at around 42% a month ago, has overtaken Obama at 50% and has a good shot at unseating the incumbent.
This is my take based on polls conducted by various Pollsters.
For Obama: ME, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, NY, DE, DC, MD, PA, IL, MI, MN, CA, OR, WA, HI == Total 232 EVs. Although Romney has decided to reenter the race in PA, it will go to Obama. Leaning Obama and likely to win: NM 5 for an overall total of 237 EVs
For Romney: WV, SC, GA, AL, TN, KY, IN, MS, MO, LA, AK, TX, MT, OK, KN,NB, SD, ND, WY, AZ, ID, AK = Total 191. Leaning Romney and likely to win: VA (Obama ahead but given to Romney, because of the White vote) and NC for a total of 219.
Too Close to call: NV (6), IA (6), WI (10), OH (18), FL (29), CO (9), NH (4), Undecided: 82.
Likely Leaning Outcome for Romney: Co (tied) is next to a Mormon state (UT) and likely to go to Romney who is a Mormon; Jews are voting Republican in FL (as opposed to last election) and are likely to go Romney; Obama is leading in IA (3%) but I think Romney could wrest it because of the strong White male factor. So Romney could add 44 EVs for a total of 263 EVs.
Likely Leaning Outcome for Obama: NH was solid Obama last time (by 10%) but now he holds a 2% lead and is likely to retain it by the narrowest of margins; Obama has a lead in NV that has shrunk from 9% in 2008 to 3% now but he could hold it – keep in mind it has a large number of Mormons who could swing to Romney.  It looks from latest polling that Obama will hold WI where he leads by 4% down from 14% in 2008.
So Obama adds 20 EVs. The above puts the race at 257 for Obama and 263 for Romney.  270 needed to win.
That leaves WI and OH. Obama needs to win both and he is leading in both.  Romney needs to win just one. In 2008, Obama won WI by 14%.  Now, he is leading by only 4%. In 2008, Obama won OH by 4%.  Now he is leading by only 3%.
It is a tough race to call. No wonder the analysts are saying too close to make a call. The odds are in favor of Obama. But I will not be surprised if Romney pulls off an upset.  Off course the race in the battleground states is so close according to the polls that all the above projections could go either way.
In addition to the Presidency, people will also have to make a choice among candidates seeking Senate, Congressional, and local State contests (Senate and Assembly).
Guyanese and other Caribbean Americans are urged to perform their civic duty by voting.  In several states (like NY, NJ, CT, GA) where Guyanese are settled, the outcome is a foregone conclusion.  But in Florida and Pennsylvania, where large concentrations of Guyanese are also found, the election is close and their vote can make a difference.  Romney is likely to win in FL, while Obama is likely to win in PA.
But the local contests are very important to the lives of Guyanese. In N.Y, for example, there is an important race in Richmond Hill area (which has the only close contest in the city) between Democrat incumbent Joe Addabbo and Republican challenger Erich Ulrich.
Most Guyanese I interviewed are backing Ulrich and they hope he wins because they want to send a message to politicians who ignore them. For too long, Guyanese Americans, New Yorkers, in particular, have been ignored by their elected reps. Addabbo has not done much for them. Ulrich is more grounded with the community.  I made a lot of phone calls through my union to voters from the district and it seems to me that Ulrich has the momentum and can pull it off. My informal polling reveals a lot of voters have switched from Addabbo to Ulrich. But many people may not be able to vote because they have been uprooted by Hurricane Sandy.
By coming out to vote, Guyanese will send a clear message that their vote matters.  The higher the turnout, the greater attention they will have in their community and the more resources they will receive.
I urge my fellow Guyanese Americans to go out and vote.  I also encourage them to volunteer for the campaign of one of the candidates.  For the last thirty years, I have been volunteering for candidates and assisting the Democrats. I will be aiding Republican Ulrich and other candidates who I think earned our vote.
Vishnu Bisram

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