Aug 31, 2012 Letters Comments Off on Close election contest in the US
Much attention has been focused by Guyanese Americans and others on the two major political parties in America that are holding their national conventions to officially choose their Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates.
Several Guyanese have been chosen by the two parties to attend both conventions – Republican in Tampa and Democratic in Charlotte – showing Guyanese Americans are interested in the contest and are getting more involved in politics.
Most Guyanese are Democrats, although many have been disappointed in President Barack Obama’s policy on several issues. I, for example, am very disappointed on Obama’s educational policy, which is a continuation of Bush’s failed policy.
Guyanese, like other immigrant groups, are keenly following the Republican convention and plan to do same for the Democratic convention, so as to make a wise decision on how they vote. Opinions may change as a result of the conventions. The parties hold conventions with the expectation of getting a bounce for their candidate in opinion polls for the November general elections. And Guyanese, like others, may change their vote. Sure enough, with all the media attention this week, the Republican Party is expected to get a bounce in support, only to be neutralized next week after the Democrats hold their convention. I expect opinion polls to shift by weekend.
So far, opinion polls (dozens of them) show a close contest between Mitt Romney (Republican) and Barack Obama (Democrat) for President. The race is a dead heat, although more analysts feel Obama will prevail and an assessment of all the polls shows Obama ahead.
However, a social and economic predictive model, conducted by two University of Colorado Professors, shows a victory for Romney. This model has never been wrong since it first began forecasting elections in 1980. In 2008, the Colorado Professors’ model showed a lopsided victory for Obama although analysts felt the election would be much closer.
Obama trounced John McCain 52% to 48% in popular votes, but had a landslide in electoral votes. The Colorado Professors are predicting a similar outcome for Romney this time around. I think the election will be much closer, as indeed is being shown by all opinion polls, save the Colorado model. I don’t think an Obama victory can be ruled out, especially that the election is two months away. However, what is surprising is the number of people who have turned against Obama and the democrats.
In terms of electoral votes, polls have Obama way ahead although he has not sealed the deal as yet. The Colorado Professors’ model shows a very different picture than what current polling data suggest – 320 to 218 electoral votes with Romney winning all close state contests. But the Huffington Post analysis of several polls shows Obama with 257 electoral votes to Romney’s 191 with only six “tossup” states deciding the outcome: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. According to the Huffington analysis, Obama needs to win only one of the six states, while Romney needs to win all of them to win the Presidency.
I think the election will remain close till the end and I believe Ohio and Florida will decide the outcome.
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