There is no way a majority of those election absentees were PNC supporters

Apr 22, 2012 Letters

Dear Editor,
I liked the essence of Kissoon’s analysis in his article titled “Scotland in the UK; Georgetown in Guyana” (KN, April 12, 2012).
Kissoon got a lot of his analysis right. However, he was completely wrong when he stated “…the PNC could have clinched victory if 130,000 registrants did not stay away… My point on this page, months before the election campaign began, was that a majority of those no-show registrants would be PNC supporters.” Absolute hogwash from Kissoon.
There is no way a majority of those election absentees were PNC supporters. If that 130,000 is reduced by 10 percent for migration, we have 117,000 absentees. Kissoon is engaging some serious delusions of grandeur when he claims that at least 58,500 of those absentees were PNC supporters.
A review of historical demographics rejects Kissoon’s contention. The African population which is the PNC’s bread and butter support and which accounts for at least 90 percent of its total vote in every election since 1992 has been stagnant since 1980.
Past electoral results for the PNC also repudiate Kissoon’s theory. The PNC’s highest ever vote tally is 165,866 in 2001 when 91.71 percent of the electorate voted. 2001 represents the absolute peak of PNC’s electoral performance in Guyana’s history.
The tragedy of that 165,866 votes is that it was never enough to win a plurality or majority of the vote. It was never good enough to win a single election. Even if we transpose those 165,866 votes to election night of November 28, 2011 when the PPP delivered its worst ever electoral performance, the PNC/APNU still comes in second.
That 165,866 votes cannot even win a majority in 2006 when Guyana experienced its lowest turnout ever.
The problem for the PNC, like the PPP, is not just a matter of turnout. It is a matter of demographics.
The African and Indian populations are declining while the Mixed and Amerindian populations are growing. The latter groups are not voting for race parties and are not voting period. So are some traditional PNC and PPP supporters too.
Also, the PPP always gets a higher percentage of the Mixed and Amerindian support compared to the PNC/APNU.
The PNC is a party that relies almost singlehandedly on its African base for its voting support. That formula cannot win an election, ever.
The factors above confirm why APNU/PNC cannot ever win power. It is a stark reality Africans in Guyana have to face. The only way APNU/PNC became part of an opposition majority in Parliament was because the AFC managed to secure former PPP supporters to its side.
APNU got lucky in the 2011 election because a split in the Indian vote and the AFC’s ability to capture some of the PPP’s Mixed and Amerindian support reduced the PPP’s ability to win a majority. Kissoon is right that some Africans have walked away from the PNC because of this dilemma of the PNC/APNU always coming second.
Despite the PNC/APNU recapturing its base in 2011 in a highly energized turnout of PNC supporters, APNU/PNC still came up 26,000 votes short of the PPP which had its worst electoral performance. I strongly believe PNC supporters will have to make a major personal political decision at some point.
They have to determine whether supporting a party (APNU/PNC) that surrendered its greatest advantage in having a combined opposition acting together in battle against a strong political foe (PPP) is really deserving of their support. The bottom line here is that Africans have to take a long and hard look at this bleak future of political wilderness facing them with the PNC/APNU.
M. Maxwell

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There is no way a majority of those election absentees were PNC supporters

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