Egypt and Democratic Change

It has been just over a year now that, inspired by events in Tunisia, Egyptians overthrew the ossified dictatorial regime of Hosni Mubarak. It was a move that disconcerted the western powers, especially the US, that had underwritten the Mubarak regime in exchange for the key Arab nation’s support in their Middle East strategic interests. Those interests centred on oil and Israel.
Moving quickly to head off radical changes, especially in terms of foreign policy, the army took charge of the process of instituting ‘democratic changes’ in the country. After a seemingly interminable wait, elections for a constituent assembly were held, and finally on January 23, two days before the one-year anniversary of the revolution, the Parliament was convened. The elections were conceded to be generally free without the egregious ballot-stuffing that had characterised previous elections under Mubarak.
What is seen as somewhat troubling to the army and its western bakers, however, is the composition of the parliament in which Islamist parties will control 338 of the 498 seats – more than a two-thirds majority. The parties are the Muslim Brotherhood-led Freedom and Justice Party, which secured 47 per cent of the vote – translating into 213 seats – followed by another Islamist grouping, the more conservative Al Nour Party, which polled 25 per cent of the vote – and securing 125 seats.
The parties that were in the forefront of initiating the revolution – mainly liberals and leftists – fell far short of the expectations that were engendered at the time. However, in an interesting development, the Muslim Brotherhood, which had provided much-needed discipline to the youthful protestors during the uprising, indicated they would rather coalesce with the liberal and secular parties. While this may be due to the different Islamic orientation of the Muslim Brotherhood to the Al Nour Party, it can also be seen as a signal to the west that it will not go ‘fundamentalist’.
Al Nour practices a “Salafist” theology close to that prevalent in Saudi Arabia and in fact had been explicitly formed to checkmate the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood which had become very influential and a threat to the Mubarak government. This development should be an object lesson to observers of the Arab scene that assume that all “Islamic” groups are necessarily homogenous ideologically.
The Parliament, acting as a constituent assembly, now has the responsibility of crafting a new constitution. Fears have been expressed about this drafting while the military is still in control: the worry, of course, is that the latter will exert too much influence. Many would rather that the constitution be drafted and ratified after the presidential elections, which are scheduled in June.
While some youths and other participants in the “Arab Awakening” are concerned at the slow pace of change and some have demanded a ‘second revolution’ against army dominance, the Muslim Brotherhood has struck a firm but conciliatory tone. While warning the military not to appoint a PM and Cabinet, they have signalled that they are willing to work with them until the presidential elections.
The west has struggled to work out a modus vivendi with the Brotherhood, recognising their strength, which is a consequence of their decades of social work in depressed communities. This posture is a turnaround from the blind eye they turned to the suppression imposed by the immediate past regimes. While the west knows that the Brotherhood will not be as accommodating to Israel as Mubarak, they are hoping that they will honour present treaties.
Relations in Gaza, however, might undergo a seismic change since Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and the leaderships have strong ties. The role of the army, the key ally of the west, is crucial in the coming months. They would prefer to have the broadly secular 1971 constitution retained – which might be acceptable to the Islamicists of all stripes since it has a clause that states the principles of Islamic law are the basis of Egyptian law.
In our view, change in Egypt will be greatly influenced by Israel and US actions against Iran.