Latest update April 19th, 2024 12:59 AM
Jan 29, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom
The protests that are taking place in Cairo and other Egyptian cities are not indications that there is going to be political change. They represent visible examples of discontent within the middle class, mainly over rising food prices.
The protests are not going to test the security forces and they are not going to force the government to step down. These protests will peter out as was the case in Iran just after that country’s general elections.
The same excuse that was made then will be made now. It will be claimed that heavy-handed action by the security forces crushed the pro-democracy movement in that country.
The western nations would love to believe and would want the whole world to believe that what we are witnessing is a process of change sweeping the Middle East. There is no process of change.
There are pockets of discontent that are flaring up, admittedly unusually so and while the protests last the western nations are going to fan the flames of discontent in the hope that any success can serve notice that there is a deep-rooted desire for western-style democracy in that part of the world and that the people are fed up with the elites in their country.
Right now such a verdict cannot be made because the protests are way too small. Secondly, the elite is not likely to view the protests as a mass uprising because the people in the streets are mainly from the middle class. Until such time as these middle class leaders can force tens of thousands of poor persons in the street, only then will the authorities take them seriously.
All the babble therefore about the possibility of the government falling and the outside chance of the military taking power should the situation become ungovernable is idle speculation.
The military is not yet challenged and if it was, the leaders will easily put down any rebellion. The security forces have used restraint in their actions even though five persons have been said to have been killed. The government is in general control of the situation at this time and the situation is not likely to get beyond them even though there is going to be some violence involved.
The western nations are however hoping that these protests can lead to something more tangible.
They would love to see a pro-democracy movement emerge and even a change in government since this would signal to other leaders of that region that the resistance to political change cannot be sustained.
The government will eventually get down to addressing some of the economic concerns being expressed and within two weeks these protests are going to get stronger and eventually fade out.
The western nations will be disappointed as they were in Iran and they will accuse the Egyptian Government of high-handed action. Already they are calling for the government to avoid using violence against the protestors. But they are not calling on the protestors to avoid any action that can lead to damage to property or injury to persons.
The western governments are not also calling on the government to respect democracy and human rights, which only goes to show the direction in which they are hoping these protests will be headed.
The West is going to be sorely disappointed. There will be more protests and more violence but regime change is not created by mere protests. Regime change is created when the overwhelming majority of the people is fed up and fail to see any hope in the future and also when the time is right for such change.
The time is not right at the moment for regime change in Egypt. And so following in the footsteps of Iran what the world will witness within the next two weeks is some amount of protests which will die out as so many similar causes have done over the years.
After Iraq and Afghanistan, the people of the Middle East are not going to be very interested in western-style democracy, at least not right now.
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